Filling vacant lots - describe in detail the issues - review my plan

This is a two part question.

So there is a park for sale now that is about 30% occupied, 116 spaces, 9% near a large metro, so even without filling in seems like a good deal.

Expense ratio is a whopping 62% because :

office and maintenance staff is $20k,
trash $12k (wow),
landscaping $4k,
repairs $5k,
water/sewer/elec $20k,
taxes $23k

Let’s discuss something even worse: well and lagoon. I am budgeting $250k/20 years, or $12,500/year for lagoon replacement risk (yes the capital is available). And what about the well? not worried so much about it since well failure rate is not real high generally, but lets just add a few thousand per year to be safe.

Assume I can get a 9% cap after adding in lagoon/well replacement budget.
Is there a reason not to buy such a park? Because even if I dont infill, and lagoon fails once every 20 years, then worst case scenario is a 9% cap. If lagoon doesnt fail, then 12% cap.

SECOND PART OF QUESTION

I am trying to understand the headches with in-fill because I just dont understand teh details regardless of the other posts I have read:

  1. Capitalization needed. Obviously at $20k/home, it would cost $2M to fill., but cash flow, putting in 2 per month shows more like $600k

  2. Timeline: At two used homes per month ($20k each), $1k down payment from tenant (although $2-$4k would be more interesting), that is 6-7 years to fill and pay off, after which , the cap rate would be at in the 30%'s, after a few years at a low cap rate

  3. My time: Well, there is already $20k in onsite management (not sure what for yet), plus bonus for getting a unit rented. Even so, the time needed to find a home on craiglist and finding a regular team of repair guys does not seem that difficult. Why are these such time suckers?

  4. Anything else?

Is this your first park? If it is, I would keep looking and try to find something that doesn’t have a lagoon and is more occupied. In-fill is very costly and time consuming and it takes a lot capital.

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The first problem you’re gonna encounter is that no lender will want to finance the park. Regulations have tightened and 30% occupancy is nowhere even near where lenders want it. You will want at least 60%, probably 70%. I’ve heard stories of 50% get financed, but you are not close to that either.

You will need the seller to carry the note, and they may or may not be willing to do that.

Well is OK, but you’re gonna lose income on that every year, and it requires you to have a better system. This usually means someone coming in to check it, test it, and if there’s issues, it can cripple your community. It’s not a deal breaker, but something that takes away value from the park for sure.

Lagoon is a big no. Not only are they getting banned in certain states, but it is a tremendous liability, and insanely expensive. What if it gets banned in your state or city and you’re out of options? You likely will have to pay more for insurance as well just from the fact you have it in your park. You also don’t know if it’ll stop working 20 years in… it could be much earlier, putting you in a terrible spot. Not to mention simply saving 250k for it could mean the down payment on a big park. You are far more on the risk side of the equation than on the reward side.

Filling lots is the most intensive thing to do in terms of capital, time and management. It also depends on the market. Is your park rural? Suburban? Urban? How is the economy near it? If the park is at a 30% occupancy, it could very well mean you are dealing with a location that won’t work, so can you realistically fill 70%? If it was easy, the seller would do it. but they didn’t. It’s your job to find out if this project even has the option to work, before you buy the park.

The reason filling homes is time consuming, is because finding a home at a reasonable price takes time, scheduling someone to go take a look then scheduling someone to move it takes time, then depending on the condition of the home, you may have to repair it, this also takes time and resources, and contractors aren’t the most reliable bunch, then you have to install the home and hook up utilities, which some moving companies do and some don’t, then finally once the home is in there, you have to market the home, find a customer which depending on your market could be easy or impossible, go through many calls and a couple showings, screen a tenant, then finally you have one more person move in. Chances are, you are gonna have to have your manager help you with this because you aren’t near the park, and managers can wreck your business or be a gold mine, so that’s another obstacle in there. It’s also another expense because a person who does that all well will have to be paid a certain degree of pay, otherwise you get what you pay for… As you can see it is quite the process.

If you’re buying this at a 12 Cap, this could work, but realistically you’re taking far too much risk for a 12 cap, and after saving for the inevitable capex, and dealing with an insanely long filling process, you’re at a 9 cap. There are safer, easier to run investments at a 9 cap even if they are difficult to find. In the end, is it worth the headache? You have to determine that. Personally, I wouldn’t. Too many variables. Again, there is more risk and not an appropriate reward. If you were buying this at a ridiculous 15 cap, then maybe you can make the argument it’s a bargain, but I don’t see it here either.

Also, you’re probably going to be burning most if not all of your budget in this park potentially, there’s an argument where you don’t want all of your eggs in this single basket. But that’s an answer only you can determine…

Hope this helps with some perspective.

Some great advice!!!

I could deal with many of those issues, but the risk of the state shutting lagoons down is un-mitigatable risk. It s near st louis missouri, and not sure the state’s stance on lagoons.

Yeah, I should probably offer half of what they are asking, and get the seller to finance too. I could buy it cash, but you know, OPM is more interesting in cases like this.

I would call the Mobile Home Association in that state and verify exactly the risks behind a lagoon in the area you want to invest.

Then take a deep dive into the economy and job industry of that area.

Finally you wanna convince the seller that no one wants to buy his park… Except you. Because no bank will finance it and he has a lagoon. Then you sweep it in with 15 cap or something.

Hope that helps.

Absolutely! Very appreciative for the follow up on this too :slight_smile:

Is the park in Illinois or Mo big difference lagoon regs wise?

Feel free to call me with your lagoon questions.

We own a lagoon park and also run a operating and management company that operates private utilities. That have wells, package plants and lagoons

Phillip Merrill
503.734.7400

I saw you on a presentation at SECO on Tuesday! Fellow Oregonian here!!!

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@PhillipMerrill I’d love to get on a call with you today if you have time. I’m looking at a park in MO with a lagoon and cannot identify any local resources/contractors for info (Kansas City metro). I’ve had two contractors out that are registered with the MO Dept. of Health and Senior Services which regulates small single-family lagoons, but neither have been skilled enough to tell me if it’s in compliance with the MO Dept. of Natural Resources (which oversees larger lagoons), much less give me a ballpark of what it would cost to be in compliance. Frankly, I have a lot of concerns that it’s not, which I can go through in detail over the phone… There is city sewer on two sides of the property, about 700’ in either direction, downhill one way and uphill the other. The only problem is that I’d have to cross a blueline creek to tap into the downhill main, which I’ve been told means that I’ll probably need a lift station (and grinder pump?) no matter which direction I go, but I read drastically different cost estimates for those online ($20k-$500k). There’s some hair on this one, but a ton of upside. I just need to account for any capex associated with the removing the lagoon and tying into the city sewer but I am striking out. Thanks!

Bryce

Go ahead and give me a call today.

503.734.7400

I have a park in Oklahoma. Lagoon system. It’s a DEQ oversight issue. They come and do annual inspections. There are state regs that need to be adhered to. Of course, of primary concern is waste water leeching into the ground, thereby affecting well
water.

I've heard it suggested that you always inquire about any oustanding administrative orders from local municipalities and or state.

What part of St. Louis area ? There is a huge price difference 20 minutes apart from downtown and surrounding area. I own several parks in the area. Most are on public but we have a couple on treatment plant and lagoon. Most local Parks are 90%+ occupied and seeing the highest resell values ever.

#1 ) The WELL: With that may occupants there should be a state license to operate the well and should be tested monthly. Get the reports and contact DNR of any violations or non compliance.
#2) LAGOON or Treatment Plant: There will be a license with the State, make sure they are compliant and no violations.
#3) If public water and sewer are close by make sure the local utilities have not applied to be the continuing authority over the well and lagoon. If they have , they will control your well and lagoon vs the State, which may require you to hook up to local utilities in a certain amount of time or condemnation.
#4) You should be able to pull the License for the Well and Lagoon and see what is required and when those license expire.

this is for the State of Missouri ,hope the info helps.