Don’t have any specific comments on California relative to other areas, thats more speculative. I personally don’t get it… but that doesn’t really carry value. I tried to buy in Chicago when trying to start in multifamily but the numbers wouldn’t crunch and looked at such places as OK and TX. As it so happened, TX ended up being favorable since i started here in 2008 and got into parks 2013 here.
I also almost tried to buy an apartment building in Detroit. It was cheap there but probably in hindsight, wouldn’t have turned out well…
I think the key is to recognize value. Ie, pricing relative to what you can generate on that, take into account current economic conditions , future out look, and blend it all. Like TX for example…I think a lot of areas are relatively affordable, have run left to them, and the numbers crunch out. ( TX is a ton of markets but i think there are several good metros here).
Then Frank and Dave model, looking for solid deals in solid markets… So you don’t have to catch a boom, might be in small town IA in a good metro. To me the model makes sense.
I tried not to invest on the future dictating the investment , but i do like to have what I think will happen, and if it does, it will be that much better. Instead of win lose. More like win , or win a bit more…
I don’t really want to live in KY. I did an internship in Visalia about a decade ago. Thought it was decent weather was always perfect ( which actually made me miss a little rain , or cold or something ) . CA is not my market, have no desire to invest there, probably would never invest there.
I think what you are saying is smart though about switching markets or even asset classes when they just don’t pencil out anymore and the opportunity is somewhere else. Thats how i got out of multifamily to mobile home parks. At this point in time, parks for me make complete sense and I’ve fallen in love with the business but really have select parameters but I’m small and boring on what I do