WOW...this is an eye-opener


#1

Don posted a very cool web site showing actual mobile homes shipped to each State last year. The site is:

http://www.census.gov/const/www/mhsindex.html

This shows State by State shipments and it is very interesting. Texas, NC, SC, Florida (the usual suspects) seem to be shipping the most new homes.

2008 will probably end up lower than 2007.

Lots of talk right now about the changing markets…do me a favor and re-read DOW.

This book is as informative and current as the day it was written. For me it is so easy to fall into the negative spaces we read about each day in the newspaper, but i try to see opportunity in this declining market.

There will always be a market for affordable housing. Our job is to tweak the marketing of these homes in a changing market.

For rentals we have gone to first month rent free…last month rent and deposit to move in. We’ve gone to 4X4 wooden, painted signs on corner property (our property) locations. We have advertised 50% more and will show homes 7AM- 9 PM every day. We are at 81% occupancy. Our $750 per month are now $695 per month. $600 per month are now $575 per month. We hope to be 90% again by September 1 (school start).

For cash sales we are dying…price sells homes right now and we just won’t go below a respectable profit margin…we add 'em into rental portfolio. We are having no luck selling on Note with the huge surplus of spec homes being sold very cheaply.

We are finding improved lots for mobiles for 1999 prices and are considering buying 30-40 for when the market rebounds. My thoughts are a 10K Option for the bunch for a 2 year Option at 13K per lot…if market does not improve, let the Option expire or excercise if things are back to normal. These lots would sell for 30-34K in 2004.

This is a cycle… one very interesting thing Don brings up is the zero sum game of pulling homes from one Park to improve another nearby. This has been happening in PA, MI< and NY forever…

Greg

Manufactured Housing

Annual Shipments to States: 2001 - 2008

(2008 YTD: Through March)

State20012002200320042005200620072008 YTD

Alabama6,1654,4443,2103,6485,4004,1853,672851

Alaska3833392413251754

Arizona5,8595,4194,4544,5706,0565,5183,281592

Arkansas4,5633,0772,3472,3348,1332,8442,136500

California7,4297,3598,44110,37010,7838,2814,769794

Colorado3,9283,0161,5311,019928450514173

Connecticut18220921625341728024427

Delaware9421,2551,1901,2641,209919597111

Dist. of Columbia0002794000

Florida11,74911,14810,62915,58217,75011,0366,1221,317

Georgia8,4537,1184,1794,3934,2244,1423,116681

Hawaii04800000

Idaho9981,042785765798849721132

Illinois2,8212,5622,2652,1441,9981,8431,635277

Indiana5,0204,1893,1022,4712,0221,4601,125148

Iowa1,07497268270658941141846

Kansas1,6371,41782865161746343392

Kentucky6,5035,9334,6354,7084,0333,7083,522692

Louisiana6,0915,7854,9784,6188,9507,9056,6811,787

Maine1,1161,1541,1151,0241,03594278796

Maryland68873564091999371351499

Massachusetts3003162943433302211685

Michigan8,1906,7114,7733,6772,4291,5701,113190

Minnesota2,7862,6662,2481,7491,3811,12589892

Mississippi4,5483,3022,9802,8435,5285,5995,0351,512

Missouri4,9694,2113,5003,1242,7392,1321,617322

Montana922972827697641611593105

Nebraska6435493541581358513118

Nevada8778629191,2021,34297950297

New Hampshire75683372173772250537816

New Jersey72782773162755040036455

New Mexico2,9952,1591,5911,4781,4951,5941,621330

New York3,6533,2942,7702,6952,6132,3662,163277

North Carolina13,64911,6576,9965,3315,0084,4434,4191,142

North Dakota30831129725828828731572

Ohio5,3434,7153,5102,8302,8832,1001,457214

Oklahoma3,7483,4452,2472,4452,5102,8243,006681

Oregon2,3922,5172,4152,4922,4952,2301,772301

Pennsylvania4,5274,4364,0573,7413,6783,0022,431375

Rhode Island1188444555731315

South Carolina6,8595,9393,7792,8542,9302,9012,771741

South Dakota89279661666256149046086

Tennessee7,6317,0015,1874,7254,5103,7983,428748

Texas21,25415,33710,80810,92410,27310,27810,9283,074

Utah778839515642941858743161

Vermont4403813283813803262739

Virginia4,0284,2672,9753,4223,0042,2432,107492

Washington2,9712,9332,8682,7052,7232,6532,063409

West Virginia3,7013,2822,1592,4042,1311,9291,833369

Wisconsin2,7602,4422,0161,7101,3391,12469857

Wyoming66364146146642062153188

Dest. Pending *4,4303,8832,5511,9023,9722,0461,541372

Total **193,120168,489130,815130,748146,881117,37395,75220,834

  • Destination Pending represents those units that have not been allocated to a specific state.

** Total figures may include shipments to Canada or Puerto Rico.

Source - Institute for Building Technology & Safety


#2

Greg, as a dealer I get on mailing lists, one of which is merchandiser magazine, and they publish these stats;I have been reading them for the past 15+ years, and I suppose I thought others on this forum were aware of how MH industry has been decimated since 2000.

Ditto on your thoughts on the relevance of DOW.

It seems to me that a big disconnect exists between the members of this forum, and the “MH industry” we are too busy dealing in used homes to spend any time dealing with manufacturers, and since we aren’t buying any new product - the manufacturers don’t know what is going on in the MH parks, and so, from their perspective MH park IS extinct. In an effort to survive, they are totally focused on products that when set can qualify for FHA conforming mortgages. In turn, when someone from this forum attends a trade show, all they see are $200k mods being offered, and the disconnect widens.

Someone needs to let the manufacturers know that MHP biz ain’t dead yet, and to not forget how to build a low-end single wide.


#3

all you write. The manufacturers are all vying for conforming FHA money. One of my favorite reads is Apollo News:

http://www.apolloproperties.com/flash.htm

and this story caught my eye:

http://www.apolloproperties.com/2008-06-19-1.htm

Talks about Mr. Buffet and REIT’s and has a unique slant on 55+ Parks being viable investment vehicles while Family parks are “Land Banks” that will eventually be converted to other uses. One of the quote that caught my eye was the flatly stated number of MHP’s in thje US. 50K is used here and I really doubt this number…a lot. One County in Florida has over 300 licensed communities. Pinellas County:

http://www.pinellascounty.org/Community/MobileHomes.pdf

I have heard the number 17K MHP"s in florida alone…I believe this number because Minnesots has over 1K by itself:

http://www.hppinc.org/files/MN%20MHP%20List%20-%20Updated%2012.06.06.xls

I bring this up not to show how great i Google Shawn but to show how a simple question, " How many licensed MHP’s are there in the US?" can not be accurately answered.

We are licensed dealers also and we receive a lot of data that tends to validate your claim that some manufacturers are out of touch with the smaller MHP owners. 10 years ago it was common to have Dealers set up models in Parks and staff these with part time sales staff.

In Texas I offered to pay Sales folk from oakwood to steer customers to my park. The cost was 500 per home placed and this was money well spent.

Kinder Homes, here in florida, sells Homes of Merit homes and Jack Kinder told me in May that only one out of 36 homes sold went into Parks in 07. This compares to 4 out of ten in the nineties!!

This tells me an Owner wanting to infill with new homes will have to bring these new homes in on his dime and market them very aggressively.

Any thoughts?

Greg


#4

I read some old posts on cre by Ray Alcorn and he predicted MHP’s on site sales effort would replace the street MH dealer, it makes all the sense in world to me, but I must say, selling new homes in my park is a whole lot tougher than selling used. I’ll throw this nugget in for those who are unaware: standard policy from manufacturers to floorplan lenders on dealer sale lot inventory - full repurchase by manufacturer if dealer defaults within the first 12 months. How’s that for reducing floorplan lenders risk?


#5

I have gathered all the information and bargained for the cheapest bulk purchase from different MH factories and still cant make the numbers work for my retail sales. I know our park would look better with new homes but I dont think our checking account would. I have even thought that putting new homes in the park would change my client base and maybe the quality of the tenant. This could also just be an expensive lesson for me. As you mentioned Greg the only way we are going to infill parks is on our own nickel. Out of the almost 40 homes we have added to our park only 2 have come from private parties and we had to finance their move. All is good as long as we have a plan in place to fund infill homes. One more thing repo homes are getting expensive. 3+2 1997 or newer $4K last year $6K ++++ this year.


#6

Buy with both hands Rick! 5 years ago we had similar pricing, but no more. A 1997 or newer 16x80 repo here in Mid-MO $10k - $16 k needing typical refurb paint, carpet, floor repair, floor covering, doors, appliances, c/a. of course move& set. I have been able to buy a few homes this year from individuals, but for a quantity - forget it. Whether I Like it or not, my choices are new 16x80 @ $27k cost ready to sell, 10+ y/o @$20k cost, or move into the 20 y/o stuff @$10k Challenging to be sure!