To every thing there is a season

THE FOURTH TURNING, by William Strauss and Neil Howe, 1997.

Taken from the cover: “What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous With Destiny”–; this is an extraordinary, prescient work based on the research by these social scientists who report their findings in a conservative, apolitical style.

They discovered, and describe, the generational archetypes and the cyclical patterns which are created by the archetypes; that is, they tell how different generations determine the paths of history and thus shape the future of America. This is not a “doom and gloom” read but rather an enlightening book, amazingly accurate, scientifically documenting the cycles of the past, clarifying the present, and prophesying the future.

Reading THE FOURTH TURNING will greatly help you to understand the present uncertainties and to prepare you for a successful business and private life future. You will sleep better!

Note to congenital losers: Don’t bother spending the $5.00 for a used edition; stick with the emotional opinions of your local and national witchdoctors.

Gosh, I hate a mature democracy! My consolation rests on the fact that any closed system cannot deny entropy (gr. 7 thermodynamics).

Excellent book, make sure to get the recent-ish video that applies much of what is in the book to our present times.

Nice having met you in MO & NC. Du bist ein Schlingel. Barbara is of course a saint. Opposites attract!

John Hyre

http://www.flixxy.com/technology-and-education-2008.htm

Is the season for mobilehomeuniversity winding down?

After browsing through the above book, and a couple of others I am pretty sure we have entered into the 4th turning, called the crisis period (that started in 2005 that he predicted in 1989). The above author relates our time now to the time after the crash of 1929 to after 1940. My summary of what I’ve read based on history, especially Japan’s, is that we could see another drop in real estate values (Japan has dropped 63% from the high and has stayed there for 20 years), and a 3000 point DOW.

So if values on all asset classes will drop at the end of this year and especially 2011 maybe it would be wise to wait until then to buy a MHP.

We are having some trouble right now with evictions and move outs but believe we can fill up again because we sell stuff so cheap and compared to other forms of housing our clean homes are a real bargain. It is hang in there time.

Mike

Post Edited (06-25-10 10:13)

Mike,

I am inclined to agree with you; it is “hang in there” time. The present deflationary atmosphere suggests that we should be in no hurry to purchase another park. However, adding to our cash vault would strengthen our ability to take advantage of unheard-of bargains during the next few years. Cash is, and will be, king for a while. It is not income, but unmanageable debt that will force many a park owner to become a serious “don’t wanter.” Although a genuine bout of deflation would be more beneficial than its opposite to our economy, I don’t expect the cost of energy or precious metals (they are nobody’s obligation) or the cost of government’s collectivism to decline for some time. We’ll hang in there, reduce our expenditures, and hoard all the cash we can.

I’m planning to hang in there like a hair on a biscuit. lol Like a poot in a flight suit. lol Like white on rice. grin

The inflation - deflation argument is a beauty. I think we all understand the forces going that support each. I just wonder if this administration will “let” properties take another big hit. If what many of us are supporting happens and a wave of deflation devalues MHP’s , were are pretty much saying we have a huge crash coming. Wouldn’t every park and apartment complex that had any kind of large financing have to default ? In order for them to sell for significantly less , the rents have to go down. The cash flow ultimately is still going to determine what the properties are worth. The only surviving complexes would be ones with little or no debt. What I think would be more realistic is our Gov. just having a massive program that pays apartment and MH rent for those that are in bad economic shape. Either that or some kind of a debt forgiveness program. Otherwise we are looking at a “house of cards” type crash. Not just a “wave of deflation” that makes things a bit cheaper.

Also it’s not totally accurate to compare the US to Japan. Some of that property was worth more than money piled as high as the building. It’s also a very old population with no immigrants . I’ve heard that they actually sell more diapers to the elderly than they do to children. But if you believe that “4th wave theory” , we are now apathetic and really don’t care about our country. Is it possible that this is no longer a great country ? Could be…

Bottom line is I guess you can go into a shell and wait for the dust to settle or you can hope we are turning it around and todays prices will be tomorrows bargain. I wish I knew the answer.

Who knows what really is going to happen? No one bailed me out in the 1990’s as we lost a lot of assets. I don’t see anyone in this regime interested in promoting capitalism by forgiving any debt. Left alone I see them working to have as many people as possible dependent on them so they look to them for all their needs (rent paid) and as a consequence keep voting for the freebies. Meanwhile us hard working tax payers will see our tax bill go up and up to pay for all the social programs.

Mike

It seems the season of this site has seen better days and is in a state of stagnation. It kind of reminds me of the fall of the Roman Empire. Phiolsophers arguing with each other over minutia while their Empire crumbled around them or was that the Greeks? Hopefully, we can find another site to carry on the traditions of free flowing interchange amongst investors in mobile homes and mobile home parks. Wishing all the very best in their investments.

I am looking for a good attorney that specializes in Mobile Home Park acquisition. Any suggestions?

I specifically need an operating and non-circumvent agreement.

Thanks in advance.

Who

symptoms of APD:

persistent lying or stealing

Apparent lack of remorse[3] or empathy for others

Cruelty to animals[4]

Poor behavioral controls

Greg,

I’m glad that you are writing again.

As you know, the biggest burdens are easier to shoulder when you share them with friends, and you have many friends in this business.

Also, to the best of my knowledge, Steve Billman actually earned his doctorate degree the traditional way.

Steve,

I thank you for your excellent (and instructive) elaborations on what I refer to as the psychos, the cons. We have all met them in history, in our personal lives, and in our business. They have been ever-present in all epochs of societies. I despise the “something for nothing” crowd; the entitlement to someone else’s property, the sue-sue parasites and their sleazy advocates. In history, every state, regardless of the most honorable intentions of its founders, seems eventually to opt for the coercive redistribution of the productives’ wealth: pure theft by any other name is a major crime perpetuated by the cons, an integral part of a large group, and a symptom of a weakening, declining society.

The more wealth (money) the state allocates for itself, the less will be available for private enterprise. Case in point: the availability of finances to grow and to create employment in our or others’ businesses disappears proportionally. These psychos, like the globs of fat in the chicken soup, always seem to aim for and rise to the top. Allegedly, they are a major cause of clogged arteries.

Greg,

You make an observation I’ve made a while back. The clever and intelligent people with APD are able to rise to the top, the less clever are often poor and less charming, the least intelligent spend much of their time behind bars or running. But, of course, that’s not his fault.

Steve