I would have to agree that a recession is eminent and I see two motivations at play that could put it either before or after the elections. Obviously, Trump is planning to run on the basis of our economy being spectacular and on the basis that he kept most of his promises and is making real progress towards goals many didn’t think he’d pursue. On the other side, there is a real incentive to push levers that put us into a slow down for Democrats to take the air out of Trump’s reelection bid.
Aside from that, the embassy I used to work at in Baghdad is evacuating non-essential personnel in response to threats from Iran. https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/state-department-orders-evacuation-of-non-emergency-us-government-employees-from-iraq-1.581042?fbclid=IwAR3DpUiSSYM08WPNlSo5nh5VYlYyztoKKxwnWOp58UHMaalSWE1iUpIdy4M
The last time this happened was 2012-2013 while I was there and that was ISIS. The US military intervened after that and pushed ISIS out of Iraq and into Syria.
I spent a lot of time watching suspected Iranian spys take pictures of our embassy and the routes our diplomats traveled. War with Iran, North Korea, and China has been on the front of our military’s mind for a very long time. Will it happen? Probably not. This is a cold war in the same sense as it was with the Soviet Union. However, I suspect we’ll use a lot of dirty tricks to tank the economies of these countries. (e.g. Venezuela) Many of those tricks are likely to bring instability to our own markets which is why it’s probably a safe bet to be extremely careful as an investor right now and avoid making mistakes that could ruin you.
The key in this business seems to be to underwrite the refinances of your purchase at higher interest rates to find out what you could absorb. Additionally, you should underwrite the exits at higher cap rates too. It’s pretty simple but unfortunately the conclusion naturally means you probably won’t buy too many deals until things become a little less stable and there’s less liquidity in the marketplace. Either way, given time the market will become more favorable but it just isn’t right now for guys like us. At least not to buy. To sell, there’s been very few more favorable times for that decision.